Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Akron Zips, while the market favors Tulane Green Wave (53%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Akron Zips (-11.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Akron Zips (43%) · Akron Zips at 48¢ · $775 held · ended Nov 14

Akron Zips48¢Tulane Green Wave52¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Akron Zips

Consensus Traders

Akron Zips 43%

Total Value

$775

Combined PnL

-$3.25

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 47.5¢

-12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidAkron Zips at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Akron Zips

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Tulane Green Wave 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Akron Zips48%

Tulane Green Wave53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Akron Zips3 traders

Total Value$454.42

Total Shares694

Combined PnL+$79.87

Tulane Green Wave4 traders

Total Value$320.58

Total Shares839

Combined PnL-$83.12

Akron Zips — 43%Tulane Green Wave — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Akron Zips. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Akron Zips) and the top 1000 (6 on Tulane Green Wave) disagree here.

ctrAkron Zips 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedAkron Zips 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tulane Green Wave 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888CTR	Akron Zipsavg 54¢	$359.64	$436.23	+$76.59	54% 503-421 (924)
VI vibing123	Tulane Green Waveavg 46¢	$308.66	$238.2	-$70.46	62% 1138-702 (1840)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Tulane Green Waveavg 47¢	$41.43	$42.99	+$1.57	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Tulane Green Waveavg 49.9¢	$48.01	$33.17	-$14.84	44% 164-206 (370)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Akron Zipsavg 53¢	$22.26	$14.91	+$2.65	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Tulane Green Waveavg 45¢	$5.6	$6.21	+$0.61	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Akron Zipsavg 54¢	$7.75	$3.28	+$0.62	41% 700-1011 (1711)

0xheavy888CTR

Akron Zips

Invested

$359.64

Value

$436.23

PnL

+$76.59

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

vibing123

Tulane Green Wave

Invested

$308.66

Value

$238.2

PnL

-$70.46

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Tulane Green Wave

Invested

$41.43

Value

$42.99

PnL

+$1.57

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

glennyorkshire<$100

Tulane Green Wave

Invested

$48.01

Value

$33.17

PnL

-$14.84

Record

44%

164-206 (370)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Akron Zips

Invested

$22.26

Value

$14.91

PnL

+$2.65

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

Flaznorp<$100

Tulane Green Wave

Invested

$5.6

Value

$6.21

PnL

+$0.61

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Akron Zips

Invested

$7.75

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.62

Record

41%

700-1011 (1711)

Research grade

AvoidAkron Zips at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Akron Zips

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Tulane Green Wave 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Akron Zips. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Akron Zips) and the top 1000 (6 on Tulane Green Wave) disagree here.

ctrAkron Zips 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedAkron Zips 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tulane Green Wave 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Akron Zips wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.