Toledo Rockets vs. Detroit Titans

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo Rockets (55%) · Toledo Rockets at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Toledo Rockets>99¢Detroit Titans<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Toledo Rockets

Consensus Traders

Toledo Rockets 55%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$80.04

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidToledo Rockets at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo Rockets

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Toledo Rockets100%

Detroit Titans0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toledo Rockets6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,131

Combined PnL+$131.61

Detroit Titans5 traders

Total Value$637.67

Total Shares1,545

Combined PnL-$51.57

Toledo Rockets — 55%Detroit Titans — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Toledo Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDetroit Titans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDetroit Titans 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedToledo Rockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Toledo Rockets 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Toledo Rocketsavg 78.4¢	$961.96	$1.0K	+$68.94	55% 1658-1357 (3015)
NO NotJumpCTR	Detroit Titansavg 50¢	$525	$488.25	-$36.75	52% 895-837 (1732)
0xheavy888	Toledo Rocketsavg 83.1¢	$439.4	$444.31	+$4.91	55% 522-427 (949)
RN1	Toledo Rocketsavg 78.1¢	$255.21	$311.62	+$56.41	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Detroit Titansavg 17¢	$93.67	$74.39	-$19.28	51% 579-546 (1125)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Detroit Titansavg 15¢	$69.28	$73.79	+$4.51	56% 3699-2861 (6560)
PA Pan9X<$100	Toledo Rocketsavg 80.7¢	$37.18	$38.68	+$1.5	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
38 38791873984189<$100	Toledo Rocketsavg 80¢	$4	$4.2	+$0.2	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Toledo Rocketsavg 84¢	$4.2	$3.85	-$0.35	41% 706-1015 (1721)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Detroit Titansavg 17¢	$0.85	$0.8	-$0.05	48% 287-306 (593)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Detroit Titansavg 16¢	$0.44	$0.44	-$0	34% 173-339 (512)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Toledo Rockets

Invested

$961.96

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$68.94

Record

55%

1658-1357 (3015)

NotJumpCTR

Detroit Titans

Invested

$525

Value

$488.25

PnL

-$36.75

Record

52%

895-837 (1732)

0xheavy888

Toledo Rockets

Invested

$439.4

Value

$444.31

PnL

+$4.91

Record

55%

522-427 (949)

RN1

Toledo Rockets

Invested

$255.21

Value

$311.62

PnL

+$56.41

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Detroit Titans

Invested

$93.67

Value

$74.39

PnL

-$19.28

Record

51%

579-546 (1125)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Detroit Titans

Invested

$69.28

Value

$73.79

PnL

+$4.51

Record

56%

3699-2861 (6560)

Pan9X<$100

Toledo Rockets

Invested

$37.18

Value

$38.68

PnL

+$1.5

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

38791873984189<$100

Toledo Rockets

Invested

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

ameisgoat11<$100

Toledo Rockets

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.35

Record

41%

706-1015 (1721)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Detroit Titans

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

287-306 (593)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Detroit Titans

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$0

Record

34%

173-339 (512)

Research grade

AvoidToledo Rockets at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo Rockets

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Toledo Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDetroit Titans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDetroit Titans 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedToledo Rockets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Toledo Rockets 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toledo Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.