Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Arkansas State Red Wolves, while the market favors UT Martin Skyhawks (55%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-6.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Arkansas State Red Wolves (50%) · Arkansas State Red Wolves at 45¢ · $735 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Arkansas State Red Wolves
4
Arkansas State Red Wolves 50%
1 arb excluded
$735.21
-$7.6
48.5¢ → 45¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidArkansas State Red Wolves at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors UT Martin Skyhawks 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Arkansas State Red Wolves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Arkansas State Red Wolvesavg 44¢ | $267.33 | $277.81 | +$10.48 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
| └ Arkansas State Red Wolves leg | Arkansas State Red Wolvesavg 44¢ | $141.24 | $144.45 | +$3.21 | |
| └ UT Martin Skyhawks leg | UT Martin Skyhawksavg 52¢ | $126.09 | $133.36 | +$7.27 | |
 0xheavy888CTR | Arkansas State Red Wolvesavg 48.7¢ | $242.85 | $224.55 | -$18.3 | 57% 103-79 (182) |
 RollAwayTheDew | UT Martin Skyhawksavg 51¢ | $172.43 | $186.01 | +$13.58 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Arkansas State Red Wolvesavg 48¢ | $48.89 | $44.8 | -$2.99 | 48% 218-232 (450) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | UT Martin Skyhawksavg 52¢ | $1.93 | $2.04 | +$0.11 | 50% 1387-1404 (2791) |
Invested
$267.33
Value
$277.81
PnL
+$10.48
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Both legs:
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$242.85
Value
$224.55
PnL
-$18.3
Record
57%
103-79 (182)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$172.43
Value
$186.01
PnL
+$13.58
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$48.89
Value
$44.8
PnL
-$2.99
Record
48%
218-232 (450)
Invested
$1.93
Value
$2.04
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
1387-1404 (2791)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.