Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Temple Owls vs. La Salle Explorers: O/U 153.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$1.3K
-$51.58
49.5¢ → 49.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO tomb2456CTR | Overavg 49.5¢ | $842 | $782 | -$60 | 56% 54-42 (96) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 50¢ | $430 | $438.6 | +$8.6 | 50% 2863-2911 (5774) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 50.9¢ | $39.94 | $39.98 | +$0.05 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $2.53 | $2.45 | -$0.08 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.3 | -$0.15 | 43% 867-1151 (2018) |
Invested
$842
Value
$782
PnL
-$60
Record
56%
54-42 (96)
Invested
$430
Value
$438.6
PnL
+$8.6
Record
50%
2863-2911 (5774)
Invested
$39.94
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$0.05
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Invested
$2.53
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.08
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$0.15
Record
43%
867-1151 (2018)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.