Syracuse Orange vs. Indiana Hoosiers

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Indiana Hoosiers (100%) · Indiana Hoosiers at 69¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Syracuse Orange32¢Indiana Hoosiers68¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Indiana Hoosiers

Consensus Traders

Indiana Hoosiers 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$49.79

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 68.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidIndiana Hoosiers at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Indiana Hoosiers

7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Syracuse Orange32%

Indiana Hoosiers69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Indiana Hoosiers7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,501

Combined PnL+$49.79

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Indiana Hoosiers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedIndiana Hoosiers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Indiana Hoosiers 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Indiana Hoosiersavg 67¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$29.34	—
HI hi774c	Indiana Hoosiersavg 67¢	$784.3	$801.86	+$17.56	—
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Indiana Hoosiersavg 67.3¢	$262.65	$265.89	+$3.24	—
└ Indiana Hoosiers leg	Indiana Hoosiersavg 67.3¢	$202.53	$206.19	+$3.66
└ Syracuse Orange leg	Syracuse Orangeavg 31.7¢	$60.12	$59.7	-$0.42
SN SnakeBall	Indiana Hoosiersavg 68¢	$151.33	$152.44	+$1.11	—
VeryLucky888<$100	Indiana Hoosiersavg 68¢	$68	$68	+$0	—
FL Flaznorp<$100	Indiana Hoosiersavg 65.1¢	$31.67	$33.34	+$1.67	—
PA Pan9X<$100	Indiana Hoosiersavg 68¢	$7.92	$8	+$0.08	—
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Indiana Hoosiersavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.43	+$0.03	—

HomeRunHazard

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$1,303.69

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$29.34

Record

—

hi774c

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$784.3

Value

$801.86

PnL

+$17.56

Record

—

38791873984189ARB<$100

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$262.65

Value

$265.89

PnL

+$3.24

Record

—

Both legs:

Indiana Hoosiers$202.5367.3¢+$3.66

Syracuse Orange$60.1231.7¢-$0.42

SnakeBall

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$151.33

Value

$152.44

PnL

+$1.11

Record

—

VeryLucky888<$100

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$68

Value

$68

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Flaznorp<$100

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$31.67

Value

$33.34

PnL

+$1.67

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$7.92

Value

PnL

+$0.08

Record

—

ameisgoat11<$100

Indiana Hoosiers

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.03

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidIndiana Hoosiers at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Indiana Hoosiers

7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Indiana Hoosiers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedIndiana Hoosiers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Indiana Hoosiers 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Indiana Hoosiers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.