Spread: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-18.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wake Forest Demon Deacons (89%) · Wake Forest Demon Deacons at 65¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Wake Forest Demon Deacons65¢Southern Utah Thunderbirds35¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Consensus Traders

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 89%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$11.67

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 65¢

+35% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidWake Forest Demon Deacons at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wake Forest Demon Deacons65%

Southern Utah Thunderbirds35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wake Forest Demon Deacons8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,321

Combined PnL+$11.59

Southern Utah Thunderbirds1 trader

Total Value$2.58

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.08

Wake Forest Demon Deacons — 89%Southern Utah Thunderbirds — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWake Forest Demon Deacons 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Wake Forest Demon Deacons 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA gagarin59	Wake Forest Demon Deaconsavg 48¢	$512.46	$517.8	+$5.34	42% 64-89 (153)
FO forecastication4	Wake Forest Demon Deaconsavg 48¢	$323.52	$326.89	+$3.37	34% 171-339 (510)
38 38791873984189	Wake Forest Demon Deaconsavg 48¢	$186.24	$188.18	+$1.94	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Wake Forest Demon Deaconsavg 48¢	$68.32	$69.03	+$0.71	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wake Forest Demon Deaconsavg 48¢	$14.4	$14.55	+$0.15	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
RN1<$100	Wake Forest Demon Deaconsavg 42¢	$3.56	$3.68	+$0.13	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Wake Forest Demon Deaconsavg 50¢	$200	$3.03	+$0.03	69% 134-60 (194)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Southern Utah Thunderbirdsavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.58	+$0.08	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Wake Forest Demon Deaconsavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.43	-$0.08	41% 705-1014 (1719)

gagarin59

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Invested

$512.46

Value

$517.8

PnL

+$5.34

Record

42%

64-89 (153)

forecastication4

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Invested

$323.52

Value

$326.89

PnL

+$3.37

Record

34%

171-339 (510)

38791873984189

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Invested

$186.24

Value

$188.18

PnL

+$1.94

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

Flaznorp<$100

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Invested

$68.32

Value

$69.03

PnL

+$0.71

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

Pan9X<$100

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

RN1<$100

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Invested

$3.56

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Invested

$200

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

69%

134-60 (194)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.08

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

ameisgoat11<$100

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.08

Record

41%

705-1014 (1719)

Research grade

AvoidWake Forest Demon Deacons at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWake Forest Demon Deacons 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Wake Forest Demon Deacons 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wake Forest Demon Deacons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.