Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold High Point Panthers, while the market favors Southern Utah Thunderbirds (55%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: High Point Panthers (-23.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold High Point Panthers (86%) · High Point Panthers at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

High Point Panthers46¢Southern Utah Thunderbirds54¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

High Point Panthers

Consensus Traders

High Point Panthers 86%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$20.31

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 45.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHigh Point Panthers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

High Point Panthers

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Southern Utah Thunderbirds 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

High Point Panthers46%

Southern Utah Thunderbirds55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

High Point Panthers6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,461

Combined PnL-$20.46

Southern Utah Thunderbirds1 trader

Total Value$2.65

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.15

High Point Panthers — 86%Southern Utah Thunderbirds — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on High Point Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHigh Point Panthers 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedHigh Point Panthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000High Point Panthers 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	High Point Panthersavg 46.8¢	$944.44	$915.97	-$20.96	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
FL FlaznorpCTR	High Point Panthersavg 46¢	$445.43	$445.43	+$0	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
0xheavy888CTR	High Point Panthersavg 45.9¢	$165.36	$165.63	+$0.27	55% 294-243 (537)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	High Point Panthersavg 45.5¢	$91	$78.46	+$0.6	52% 836-757 (1593)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	High Point Panthersavg 46.5¢	$15.34	$15.02	-$0.32	55% 211-170 (381)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	High Point Panthersavg 46¢	$4.63	$4.58	-$0.05	29% 105-255 (360)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Southern Utah Thunderbirdsavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.65	+$0.15	38% 507-819 (1326)

HomeRunHazardCTR

High Point Panthers

Invested

$944.44

Value

$915.97

PnL

-$20.96

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

FlaznorpCTR

High Point Panthers

Invested

$445.43

Value

$445.43

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

0xheavy888CTR

High Point Panthers

Invested

$165.36

Value

$165.63

PnL

+$0.27

Record

55%

294-243 (537)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$91

Value

$78.46

PnL

+$0.6

Record

52%

836-757 (1593)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$15.34

Value

$15.02

PnL

-$0.32

Record

55%

211-170 (381)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$4.63

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$0.05

Record

29%

105-255 (360)

ameisgoat11<$100

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.15

Record

38%

507-819 (1326)

Research grade

AvoidHigh Point Panthers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

High Point Panthers

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Southern Utah Thunderbirds 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on High Point Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHigh Point Panthers 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedHigh Point Panthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000High Point Panthers 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that High Point Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.