Spread: High Point Panthers (-22.5)

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold High Point Panthers (91%) · High Point Panthers at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

High Point Panthers51¢Southern Utah Thunderbirds49¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

High Point Panthers

Consensus Traders

High Point Panthers 91%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$52.68

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 50.5¢

+3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidHigh Point Panthers at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

High Point Panthers

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

High Point Panthers51%

Southern Utah Thunderbirds50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

High Point Panthers10 traders

Total Value$942.5

Total Shares1,798

Combined PnL+$52.63

Southern Utah Thunderbirds1 trader

Total Value$2.4

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.05

High Point Panthers — 91%Southern Utah Thunderbirds — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on High Point Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHigh Point Panthers 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedHigh Point Panthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000High Point Panthers 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	High Point Panthersavg 52¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$9.79	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
└ High Point Panthers leg	High Point Panthersavg 52¢	$959.41	$959.08	-$0.33
└ Southern Utah Thunderbirds leg	Southern Utah Thunderbirdsavg 47¢	$483.8	$493.92	+$10.11
GA gagarin59	High Point Panthersavg 49¢	$211.68	$224.64	+$12.96	41% 50-71 (121)
38 38791873984189	High Point Panthersavg 50.2¢	$182.62	$189.11	+$6.49	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
0xheavy888	High Point Panthersavg 48¢	$160.39	$173.73	+$13.34	54% 278-237 (515)
VeryLucky888	High Point Panthersavg 49¢	$147	$154.98	+$8.98	52% 773-714 (1487)
BA Bagwell306	High Point Panthersavg 48¢	$110.95	$120.19	+$9.25	29% 50-125 (175)
poshposh<$100	High Point Panthersavg 49¢	$27.27	$28.98	+$1.71	47% 532-590 (1122)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	High Point Panthersavg 52¢	$21.66	$21.24	-$0.42	16% 49-253 (302)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	High Point Panthersavg 53¢	$12	$11.97	-$0.03	55% 210-170 (380)
PA Pan9X<$100	High Point Panthersavg 50.3¢	$11.07	$11.44	+$0.37	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	High Point Panthersavg 52.7¢	$6.24	$6.21	-$0.02	38% 492-810 (1302)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Southern Utah Thunderbirdsavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.4	+$0.05	51% 2545-2464 (5009)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$1,443.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$9.79

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

Both legs:

High Point Panthers$959.4152¢-$0.33

Southern Utah Thunderbirds$483.847¢+$10.11

gagarin59

High Point Panthers

Invested

$211.68

Value

$224.64

PnL

+$12.96

Record

41%

50-71 (121)

38791873984189

High Point Panthers

Invested

$182.62

Value

$189.11

PnL

+$6.49

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

0xheavy888

High Point Panthers

Invested

$160.39

Value

$173.73

PnL

+$13.34

Record

54%

278-237 (515)

VeryLucky888

High Point Panthers

Invested

$147

Value

$154.98

PnL

+$8.98

Record

52%

773-714 (1487)

Bagwell306

High Point Panthers

Invested

$110.95

Value

$120.19

PnL

+$9.25

Record

29%

50-125 (175)

poshposh<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$27.27

Value

$28.98

PnL

+$1.71

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$21.66

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$0.42

Record

16%

49-253 (302)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$12

Value

$11.97

PnL

-$0.03

Record

55%

210-170 (380)

Pan9X<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$11.07

Value

$11.44

PnL

+$0.37

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

ameisgoat11<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$6.24

Value

$6.21

PnL

-$0.02

Record

38%

492-810 (1302)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Research grade

AvoidHigh Point Panthers at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

High Point Panthers

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on High Point Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHigh Point Panthers 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedHigh Point Panthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000High Point Panthers 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that High Point Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.