Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs. High Point Panthers

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold High Point Panthers (56%) · High Point Panthers at 100¢ · $621 held · ended Nov 13

Southern Utah Thunderbirds<1¢High Point Panthers>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

High Point Panthers

Consensus Traders

High Point Panthers 56%

Total Value

$621.34

Combined PnL

-$14.13

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 99.9¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidHigh Point Panthers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

High Point Panthers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Southern Utah Thunderbirds0%

High Point Panthers100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

High Point Panthers5 traders

Total Value$603.74

Total Shares621

Combined PnL+$2.08

Southern Utah Thunderbirds4 traders

Total Value$17.59

Total Shares402

Combined PnL-$16.21

High Point Panthers — 56%Southern Utah Thunderbirds — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on High Point Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHigh Point Panthers 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000High Point Panthers 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	High Point Panthersavg 96.4¢	$512.16	$514.11	+$1.94	48% 627-689 (1316)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	High Point Panthersavg 91¢	$36.6	$40.02	+$3.42	54% 1122-947 (2069)
SM smithagent<$100	High Point Panthersavg 96.8¢	$38.76	$39.85	+$1.09	42% 419-573 (992)
PA Pan9X<$100	High Point Panthersavg 93.4¢	$18.32	$5.84	-$4.48	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
38 38791873984189CTR	Southern Utah Thunderbirdsavg 15.5¢	$179.67	$5.66	-$17.61	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Southern Utah Thunderbirdsavg 3.5¢	$4.69	$5.36	+$0.67	45% 178-222 (400)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Southern Utah Thunderbirdsavg 3.7¢	$4.85	$5.24	+$0.39	52% 399-371 (770)
dips.<$100	High Point Panthersavg 96.9¢	$3.82	$3.92	+$0.1	46% 622-743 (1365)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Southern Utah Thunderbirdsavg 3¢	$1	$1.34	+$0.33	30% 67-157 (224)

SnakeBall

High Point Panthers

Invested

$512.16

Value

$514.11

PnL

+$1.94

Record

48%

627-689 (1316)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$36.6

Value

$40.02

PnL

+$3.42

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

smithagent<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$38.76

Value

$39.85

PnL

+$1.09

Record

42%

419-573 (992)

Pan9X<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$18.32

Value

$5.84

PnL

-$4.48

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

38791873984189CTR

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Invested

$179.67

Value

$5.66

PnL

-$17.61

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Invested

$4.69

Value

$5.36

PnL

+$0.67

Record

45%

178-222 (400)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5.24

PnL

+$0.39

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

dips.<$100

High Point Panthers

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.92

PnL

+$0.1

Record

46%

622-743 (1365)

OddstormCTR<$100

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Invested

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0.33

Record

30%

67-157 (224)

Research grade

AvoidHigh Point Panthers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

High Point Panthers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on High Point Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHigh Point Panthers 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000High Point Panthers 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that High Point Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.