Spread: South Carolina Gamecocks (-22.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Saint Peter's Peacocks (80%) · Saint Peter's Peacocks at 55¢ · $211 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Saint Peter's Peacocks
5
Saint Peter's Peacocks 80%
$211.2
$17.83
49¢ → 55¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSaint Peter's Peacocks at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Saint Peter's Peacocks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774c | Saint Peter's Peacocksavg 49¢ | $164.15 | $180.9 | +$16.75 | 14% 77-472 (549) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | South Carolina Gamecocksavg 44¢ | $19.42 | $19.85 | +$0.43 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Saint Peter's Peacocksavg 49¢ | $4.75 | $5 | +$0.25 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Saint Peter's Peacocksavg 50¢ | $2.55 | $2.75 | +$0.2 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Saint Peter's Peacocksavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.7 | +$0.2 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
Invested
$164.15
Value
$180.9
PnL
+$16.75
Record
14%
77-472 (549)
Invested
$19.42
Value
$19.85
PnL
+$0.43
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.25
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.2
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0.2
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.