Spread: South Carolina Gamecocks (-21.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Saint Peter's Peacocks (20%) · Saint Peter's Peacocks at 52¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Saint Peter's Peacocks
5
Saint Peter's Peacocks 20%
$3.5K
-$0.46
Research grade
AvoidSaint Peter's Peacocks at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Saint Peter's Peacocks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PW Pwaddler | Saint Peter's Peacocksavg 52¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$18.19 | 49% 261-275 (536) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | South Carolina Gamecocksavg 48¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$16.43 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | South Carolina Gamecocksavg 48¢ | $91.2 | $92.15 | +$0.95 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | South Carolina Gamecocksavg 48¢ | $48 | $48.5 | +$0.5 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | South Carolina Gamecocksavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.4 | -$0.15 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$1,891.39
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$18.19
Record
49%
261-275 (536)
Invested
$1,478.86
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$16.43
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$91.2
Value
$92.15
PnL
+$0.95
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$48
Value
$48.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.15
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.