Stonehill Skyhawks vs. Columbia Lions

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Columbia Lions (64%) · Columbia Lions at 75¢ · $616 held · ended Nov 10

Stonehill Skyhawks26¢Columbia Lions74¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Columbia Lions

Consensus Traders

Columbia Lions 64%

Total Value

$616.47

Combined PnL

$93.07

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 74.5¢

-12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidColumbia Lions at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Columbia Lions

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Stonehill Skyhawks26%

Columbia Lions75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Columbia Lions7 traders

Total Value$365.23

Total Shares471

Combined PnL-$32.13

Stonehill Skyhawks4 traders

Total Value$251.12

Total Shares1,042

Combined PnL+$125.2

Columbia Lions — 64%Stonehill Skyhawks — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Columbia Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrColumbia Lions 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Columbia Lions 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Columbia Lionsavg 88¢	$293.04	$254.75	-$38.3	68% 30-14 (44)
nigiri99CTR	Stonehill Skyhawksavg 12¢	$57.72	$117.85	+$60.13	42% 28-38 (66)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Stonehill Skyhawksavg 11¢	$50.55	$105.69	+$55.14	46% 50-59 (109)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Columbia Lionsavg 70¢	$42	$50.7	+$8.7	—
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Columbia Lionsavg 86¢	$34.4	$30.8	-$3.6	52% 477-432 (909)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Stonehill Skyhawksavg 11¢	$8.2	$18.27	+$10.07	2% 1-48 (49)
38 38791873984189<$100	Columbia Lionsavg 69¢	$10.75	$10.83	+$0.08	49% 398-410 (808)
PA Pan9X<$100	Columbia Lionsavg 88¢	$10.49	$10.11	-$0.38	48% 179-191 (370)
dips.CTR<$100	Stonehill Skyhawksavg 35¢	$9.45	$9.32	-$0.13	47% 104-119 (223)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100	Columbia Lionsavg 50¢	$2.58	$4.53	+$1.95	100% 29-0 (29)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Columbia Lionsavg 88¢	$4.67	$3.52	-$0.58	20% 48-194 (242)

0xheavy888

Columbia Lions

Invested

$293.04

Value

$254.75

PnL

-$38.3

Record

68%

30-14 (44)

nigiri99CTR

Stonehill Skyhawks

Invested

$57.72

Value

$117.85

PnL

+$60.13

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

SnakeBallCTR

Stonehill Skyhawks

Invested

$50.55

Value

$105.69

PnL

+$55.14

Record

46%

50-59 (109)

suitcase6628<$100

Columbia Lions

Invested

$42

Value

$50.7

PnL

+$8.7

Record

—

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Columbia Lions

Invested

$34.4

Value

$30.8

PnL

-$3.6

Record

52%

477-432 (909)

OddstormCTR<$100

Stonehill Skyhawks

Invested

$8.2

Value

$18.27

PnL

+$10.07

Record

1-48 (49)

38791873984189<$100

Columbia Lions

Invested

$10.75

Value

$10.83

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

398-410 (808)

Pan9X<$100

Columbia Lions

Invested

$10.49

Value

$10.11

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

179-191 (370)

dips.CTR<$100

Stonehill Skyhawks

Invested

$9.45

Value

$9.32

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

104-119 (223)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100

Columbia Lions

Invested

$2.58

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$1.95

Record

100%

29-0 (29)

ameisgoat11<$100

Columbia Lions

Invested

$4.67

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$0.58

Record

20%

48-194 (242)

Research grade

AvoidColumbia Lions at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Columbia Lions

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Columbia Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrColumbia Lions 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Columbia Lions 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Columbia Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.