Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold South Florida Bulls, while the market favors Saint Joseph's Hawks (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: South Florida Bulls (-6.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold South Florida Bulls (67%) · South Florida Bulls at 44¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 11

South Florida Bulls44¢Saint Joseph's Hawks56¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

South Florida Bulls

Consensus Traders

South Florida Bulls 67%

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

-$121.1

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 43.5¢

-12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSouth Florida Bulls at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

South Florida Bulls

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Saint Joseph's Hawks 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

South Florida Bulls44%

Saint Joseph's Hawks56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saint Joseph's Hawks2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,803

Combined PnL+$86.35

South Florida Bulls4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares8,832

Combined PnL-$207.45

Saint Joseph's Hawks — 33%South Florida Bulls — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on South Florida Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth Florida Bulls 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSouth Florida Bulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000South Florida Bulls 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 49.1¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$83.63	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
HI hi774cCTR	South Florida Bullsavg 49¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$99.91	14% 76-472 (548)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	South Florida Bullsavg 49.9¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$111.94	50% 48-48 (96)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 54¢	$58.7	$61.41	+$2.72	55% 715-580 (1295)
VeryLucky888CTR	South Florida Bullsavg 48.6¢	$181.78	$6.24	+$4.65	52% 471-435 (906)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	South Florida Bullsavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.35	-$0.25	33% 307-625 (932)

HomeRunHazard

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$2,497.05

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$83.63

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

hi774cCTR

South Florida Bulls

Invested

$2,447.88

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$99.91

Record

14%

76-472 (548)

glennyorkshireCTR

South Florida Bulls

Invested

$1,906.77

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$111.94

Record

50%

48-48 (96)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$58.7

Value

$61.41

PnL

+$2.72

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

VeryLucky888CTR

South Florida Bulls

Invested

$181.78

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$4.65

Record

52%

471-435 (906)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

South Florida Bulls

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.25

Record

33%

307-625 (932)

Research grade

AvoidSouth Florida Bulls at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

South Florida Bulls

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Saint Joseph's Hawks 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on South Florida Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth Florida Bulls 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSouth Florida Bulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000South Florida Bulls 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that South Florida Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.