Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 171.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 50¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
1 arb excluded
$9.4K
-$99.71
50.5¢ → 49.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 49.4¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$20.33 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49.4¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$89.06 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$68.72 | |
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR | Overavg 50.5¢ | $3.0K | $2.9K | -$58.57 | 5% 9-172 (181) |
HI hi774c | Underavg 50¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$44.01 | 21% 156-572 (728) |
NO Notradecopy | Underavg 49¢ | $708.98 | $708.98 | -$0 | 17% 37-184 (221) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 47.4¢ | $89.7 | $91.83 | +$2.13 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $10.42 | $10.85 | +$0.43 | 52% 32-29 (61) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.43 | -$0.03 | 49% 1669-1706 (3375) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $7.79 | $2.42 | +$0.34 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
Invested
$3,437.13
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$20.33
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,999.31
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$58.57
Record
5%
9-172 (181)
Invested
$2,200.64
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$44.01
Record
21%
156-572 (728)
Invested
$708.98
Value
$708.98
PnL
-$0
Record
17%
37-184 (221)
Invested
$89.7
Value
$91.83
PnL
+$2.13
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Invested
$10.42
Value
$10.85
PnL
+$0.43
Record
52%
32-29 (61)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.43
PnL
-$0.03
Record
49%
1669-1706 (3375)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$7.79
Value
$2.42
PnL
+$0.34
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.