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Over
RN1<$100OverOverUnder
VeryLucky888CTR<$100UnderUnderUnder
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 170.5
Resolved Over. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$280.93
Combined PnL
$0.86
Smart Money Signal
Under
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Over100%
Under0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Over2 traders
Total Value$10.13
Total Shares10
Combined PnL+$4.45
Under4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares7
Combined PnL-$3.59
Over — 33%Under — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $187.85 | $270.8 | +$82.95 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50¢ | $135.4 | $270.8 | +$135.4 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $52.45 | — | -$52.45 | |
RN1<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $3.13 | $5.13 | +$2 | 56% 5073-4021 (9094) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $5 | +$2.45 | 40% 614-914 (1528) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $1.56 | — | -$1.56 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $51.01 | — | -$1.01 | 53% 1186-1032 (2218) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $1.02 | — | -$1.02 | 55% 1350-1126 (2476) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $211 | — | +$0 | 73% 119-43 (162) |
HO
HomeRunHazardARB<$100Invested
$187.85
Value
$270.8
PnL
+$82.95
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
Both legs:
Over$135.450¢+$135.4
Under$52.4550¢-$52.45
RN1<$100Invested
$3.13
Value
$5.13
PnL
+$2
Record
56%
5073-4021 (9094)
AM
ameisgoat11<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
40%
614-914 (1528)
38
38791873984189CTR<$100Invested
$1.56
Value
—
PnL
-$1.56
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$51.01
Value
—
PnL
-$1.01
Record
53%
1186-1032 (2218)
0X
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100Invested
$1.02
Value
—
PnL
-$1.02
Record
55%
1350-1126 (2476)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTRInvested
$211
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
73%
119-43 (162)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x61c4a5ab...10b964
Slug
cbb-smho-ill-2026-11-13-total-170pt5