Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-44.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold SIUE Cougars (22%) · SIUE Cougars at 51¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Duke Blue Devils50¢SIUE Cougars50¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

SIUE Cougars

Consensus Traders

SIUE Cougars 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$212.83

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidSIUE Cougars at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SIUE Cougars

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Duke Blue Devils50%

SIUE Cougars51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

SIUE Cougars2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,213

Combined PnL+$506

Duke Blue Devils7 traders

Total Value$815.77

Total Shares2,238

Combined PnL-$293.17

SIUE Cougars — 22%Duke Blue Devils — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on SIUE Cougars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDuke Blue Devils 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedDuke Blue Devils 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Duke Blue Devils 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	SIUE Cougarsavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$475.58	53% 536-466 (1002)
HI hi774cCTR	Duke Blue Devilsavg 49¢	$727.2	$504.59	-$222.61	21% 158-579 (737)
RN1ARB<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 36.1¢	$206.2	$232.12	+$25.92	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
└ Duke Blue Devils leg	Duke Blue Devilsavg 36.1¢	$118.28	$162.37	+$44.09
└ SIUE Cougars leg	SIUE Cougarsavg 63.7¢	$87.92	$69.75	-$18.17
38 38791873984189CTR	Duke Blue Devilsavg 48.3¢	$181.19	$136.13	-$1.06	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
HO HomeRunHazard	SIUE Cougarsavg 53¢	$76.77	$107.18	+$30.42	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 49¢	$98	$68	-$30	64% 535-298 (833)
VeryLucky888CTR	Duke Blue Devilsavg 49¢	$147	$65.47	-$32.21	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 47.1¢	$24.13	$24.21	+$0.07	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 48.9¢	$22.55	$15.68	-$6.86	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 44¢	$2.19	$1.69	-$0.5	45% 445-541 (986)

monkeymashingkeyboard

SIUE Cougars

Invested

$1,054.56

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$475.58

Record

53%

536-466 (1002)

hi774cCTR

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$727.2

Value

$504.59

PnL

-$222.61

Record

21%

158-579 (737)

RN1ARB<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$206.2

Value

$232.12

PnL

+$25.92

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Both legs:

Duke Blue Devils$118.2836.1¢+$44.09

SIUE Cougars$87.9263.7¢-$18.17

38791873984189CTR

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$181.19

Value

$136.13

PnL

-$1.06

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

HomeRunHazard

SIUE Cougars

Invested

$76.77

Value

$107.18

PnL

+$30.42

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$98

Value

$68

PnL

-$30

Record

64%

535-298 (833)

VeryLucky888CTR

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$147

Value

$65.47

PnL

-$32.21

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$24.13

Value

$24.21

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$22.55

Value

$15.68

PnL

-$6.86

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$2.19

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$0.5

Record

45%

445-541 (986)

Research grade

AvoidSIUE Cougars at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

SIUE Cougars

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on SIUE Cougars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDuke Blue Devils 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedDuke Blue Devils 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Duke Blue Devils 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SIUE Cougars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.