Spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-6.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Abilene Christian Wildcats (71%) · Abilene Christian Wildcats at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Abilene Christian Wildcats
7
Abilene Christian Wildcats 71%
$1.8K
-$18.48
50.6¢ → 99.6¢
+97% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidAbilene Christian Wildcats at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Abilene Christian Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 50.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$24.25 | 57% 3276-2473 (5749) |
GA gagarin59 | Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 49¢ | $244.51 | $249.5 | +$4.99 | 43% 35-46 (81) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 49.3¢ | $71.5 | $72.5 | +$1 | 52% 597-541 (1138) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 50¢ | $47.17 | $47.17 | +$0 | 50% 72-72 (144) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 52¢ | $22.36 | $21.5 | -$0.86 | 54% 135-114 (249) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacksavg 47¢ | $8.49 | $9.03 | +$0.54 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacksavg 49¢ | $7.4 | $7.5 | +$0.1 | 35% 376-688 (1064) |
Invested
$1,381.92
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$24.25
Record
57%
3276-2473 (5749)
Invested
$244.51
Value
$249.5
PnL
+$4.99
Record
43%
35-46 (81)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$71.5
Value
$72.5
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
597-541 (1138)
Invested
$47.17
Value
$47.17
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
72-72 (144)
Invested
$22.36
Value
$21.5
PnL
-$0.86
Record
54%
135-114 (249)
Invested
$8.49
Value
$9.03
PnL
+$0.54
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$7.5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
35%
376-688 (1064)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
Abilene Christian Wildcats — $1.4K
gagarin59
Abilene Christian Wildcats — $249.5
VeryLucky888
Abilene Christian Wildcats — $72.5
glennyorkshire
Abilene Christian Wildcats — $47.17
0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks
Abilene Christian Wildcats — $21.5
Flaznorp
CTRStephen F. Austin Lumberjacks — $9.03
ameisgoat11
CTRStephen F. Austin Lumberjacks — $7.5