Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Abilene Christian Wildcats, while the market favors Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-4.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Abilene Christian Wildcats (80%) · Abilene Christian Wildcats at 0.4¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks>99¢Abilene Christian Wildcats<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Abilene Christian Wildcats

Consensus Traders

Abilene Christian Wildcats 80%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$50.66

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 0.4¢

-99% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidAbilene Christian Wildcats at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Abilene Christian Wildcats

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks100%

Abilene Christian Wildcats0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Abilene Christian Wildcats4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,748

Combined PnL-$50.71

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks1 trader

Total Value$2.9

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.05

Abilene Christian Wildcats — 80%Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Abilene Christian Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrStephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Abilene Christian Wildcats 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 42¢	$1.0K	$983.61	-$47.89	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 40.6¢	$127.42	$125.6	-$1.82	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 42¢	$17.22	$16.4	-$0.82	54% 135-114 (249)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacksavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.9	+$0.05	35% 376-688 (1064)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Abilene Christian Wildcatsavg 43¢	$2.58	$2.4	-$0.18	38% 99-159 (258)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Abilene Christian Wildcats

Invested

$1,031.5

Value

$983.61

PnL

-$47.89

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

FlaznorpCTR

Abilene Christian Wildcats

Invested

$127.42

Value

$125.6

PnL

-$1.82

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Abilene Christian Wildcats

Invested

$17.22

Value

$16.4

PnL

-$0.82

Record

54%

135-114 (249)

ameisgoat11<$100

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.05

Record

35%

376-688 (1064)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Abilene Christian Wildcats

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.18

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

Research grade

AvoidAbilene Christian Wildcats at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Abilene Christian Wildcats

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Abilene Christian Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrStephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Abilene Christian Wildcats 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Abilene Christian Wildcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6472.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

6572.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.