Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-17.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Seton Hall Pirates (25%) · Seton Hall Pirates at 87¢ · $412 held · ended Nov 14

Alabama Crimson Tide14¢Seton Hall Pirates86¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Seton Hall Pirates

Consensus Traders

Seton Hall Pirates 25%

Total Value

$412.23

Combined PnL

-$104.88

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 86.5¢

+35% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidSeton Hall Pirates at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seton Hall Pirates

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alabama Crimson Tide14%

Seton Hall Pirates87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seton Hall Pirates2 traders

Total Value$264.69

Total Shares519

Combined PnL-$68.5

Alabama Crimson Tide6 traders

Total Value$147.54

Total Shares513

Combined PnL-$36.38

Seton Hall Pirates — 25%Alabama Crimson Tide — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Seton Hall Pirates. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Seton Hall Pirates) and the top 1000 (6 on Alabama Crimson Tide) disagree here.

ctrAlabama Crimson Tide 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedSeton Hall Pirates 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alabama Crimson Tide 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Seton Hall Piratesavg 63.7¢	$318.75	$255	-$63.75	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Alabama Crimson Tideavg 51¢	$68.97	$66.26	-$2.7	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Alabama Crimson Tideavg 50¢	$41.4	$40.57	-$0.83	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Alabama Crimson Tideavg 24.4¢	$68.45	$36.4	-$32.05	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
PA Pan9X<$100	Seton Hall Piratesavg 76¢	$14.44	$9.69	-$4.75	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Alabama Crimson Tideavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.45	-$0.1	40% 614-914 (1528)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Alabama Crimson Tideavg 24¢	$2.16	$1.17	-$0.99	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Alabama Crimson Tideavg 28¢	$0.39	$0.68	+$0.29	45% 259-311 (570)

RN1

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$318.75

Value

$255

PnL

-$63.75

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Alabama Crimson Tide

Invested

$68.97

Value

$66.26

PnL

-$2.7

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Alabama Crimson Tide

Invested

$41.4

Value

$40.57

PnL

-$0.83

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Alabama Crimson Tide

Invested

$68.45

Value

$36.4

PnL

-$32.05

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Pan9X<$100

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$14.44

Value

$9.69

PnL

-$4.75

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Alabama Crimson Tide

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.1

Record

40%

614-914 (1528)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Alabama Crimson Tide

Invested

$2.16

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.99

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Alabama Crimson Tide

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0.29

Record

45%

259-311 (570)

Research grade

AvoidSeton Hall Pirates at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seton Hall Pirates

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Seton Hall Pirates. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Seton Hall Pirates) and the top 1000 (6 on Alabama Crimson Tide) disagree here.

ctrAlabama Crimson Tide 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedSeton Hall Pirates 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alabama Crimson Tide 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seton Hall Pirates wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.