Southeastern Louisiana Lions vs. Ole Miss Rebels: O/U 147.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 53¢ · $696 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$696.49
-$21.05
49.4¢ → 52.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $228 | $239.4 | +$11.4 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
BA Bayupati | Overavg 49¢ | $234.13 | $219.8 | -$14.33 | 7% 9-124 (133) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 50¢ | $231.72 | $213.67 | -$18.05 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $14.26 | $14.26 | -$0 | 51% 299-291 (590) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 51.6¢ | $4.68 | $4.77 | +$0.09 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 47.5¢ | $4.75 | $4.6 | -$0.15 | 26% 180-518 (698) |
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$228
Value
$239.4
PnL
+$11.4
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
Invested
$234.13
Value
$219.8
PnL
-$14.33
Record
7%
9-124 (133)
Invested
$231.72
Value
$213.67
PnL
-$18.05
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$14.26
Value
$14.26
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
299-291 (590)
Invested
$4.68
Value
$4.77
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.6
PnL
-$0.15
Record
26%
180-518 (698)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.