South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. Northern Colorado Bears

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold South Dakota State Jackrabbits (30%) · South Dakota State Jackrabbits at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

South Dakota State Jackrabbits>99¢Northern Colorado Bears<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Consensus Traders

South Dakota State Jackrabbits 30%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$178.49

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

South Dakota State Jackrabbits100%

Northern Colorado Bears0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

South Dakota State Jackrabbits3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,377

Combined PnL+$192.79

Northern Colorado Bears7 traders

Total Value$139.96

Total Shares1,349

Combined PnL-$14.3

South Dakota State Jackrabbits — 30%Northern Colorado Bears — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on South Dakota State Jackrabbits. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthern Colorado Bears 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000South Dakota State Jackrabbits 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	South Dakota State Jackrabbitsavg 90¢	$799.97	$888.41	+$88.44	46% 140-167 (307)
FL Flaznorp	South Dakota State Jackrabbitsavg 65.3¢	$266.08	$368.82	+$102.73	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
alpheclabs2CTR	Northern Colorado Bearsavg 8.6¢	$92.56	$112.71	+$20.16	46% 311-372 (683)
HI hi774c<$100	South Dakota State Jackrabbitsavg 57¢	$45.93	$47.54	+$1.61	23% 184-622 (806)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Northern Colorado Bearsavg 10¢	$13.13	$15.41	+$2.28	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Northern Colorado Bearsavg 8.9¢	$6.29	$7.46	+$1.17	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Northern Colorado Bearsavg 39¢	$15.92	$3.88	-$12.04	37% 1048-1799 (2847)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Northern Colorado Bearsavg 7¢	$0.35	$0.48	+$0.13	35% 396-732 (1128)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Northern Colorado Bearsavg 44¢	$22.5	$0.03	-$22.47	37% 1064-1797 (2861)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Northern Colorado Bearsavg 44¢	$3.52	$0	-$3.52	38% 1068-1766 (2834)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Invested

$799.97

Value

$888.41

PnL

+$88.44

Record

46%

140-167 (307)

Flaznorp

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Invested

$266.08

Value

$368.82

PnL

+$102.73

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

alpheclabs2CTR

Northern Colorado Bears

Invested

$92.56

Value

$112.71

PnL

+$20.16

Record

46%

311-372 (683)

hi774c<$100

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Invested

$45.93

Value

$47.54

PnL

+$1.61

Record

23%

184-622 (806)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Northern Colorado Bears

Invested

$13.13

Value

$15.41

PnL

+$2.28

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Northern Colorado Bears

Invested

$6.29

Value

$7.46

PnL

+$1.17

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

VenusianCTR<$100

Northern Colorado Bears

Invested

$15.92

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$12.04

Record

37%

1048-1799 (2847)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Northern Colorado Bears

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$0.13

Record

35%

396-732 (1128)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Northern Colorado Bears

Invested

$22.5

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$22.47

Record

37%

1064-1797 (2861)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Northern Colorado Bears

Invested

$3.52

Value

PnL

-$3.52

Record

38%

1068-1766 (2834)

Research grade

AvoidSouth Dakota State Jackrabbits at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on South Dakota State Jackrabbits. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthern Colorado Bears 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000South Dakota State Jackrabbits 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that South Dakota State Jackrabbits wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.