Spread: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-26.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Notre Dame Fighting Irish (83%) · Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 82¢ · $206 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 83%
$205.62
$5.27
52.2¢ → 82¢
+57% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNotre Dame Fighting Irish at 82%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Notre Dame Fighting Irishavg 50.1¢ | $66.31 | $72.15 | +$5.84 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Notre Dame Fighting Irishavg 55¢ | $47.42 | $69.83 | +$22.41 | 49% 57-60 (117) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | South Carolina State Bulldogsavg 49.9¢ | $70.88 | $43.44 | -$27.44 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Notre Dame Fighting Irishavg 55¢ | $8.25 | $12.45 | +$4.2 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Notre Dame Fighting Irishavg 52¢ | $5.15 | $5 | -$0.15 | 34% 327-634 (961) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Notre Dame Fighting Irishavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.75 | +$0.4 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
Invested
$66.31
Value
$72.15
PnL
+$5.84
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Invested
$47.42
Value
$69.83
PnL
+$22.41
Record
49%
57-60 (117)
Invested
$70.88
Value
$43.44
PnL
-$27.44
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$8.25
Value
$12.45
PnL
+$4.2
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.15
Record
34%
327-634 (961)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.4
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
Notre Dame Fighting Irish — $72.15
glennyorkshire
Notre Dame Fighting Irish — $69.83
38791873984189
CTRSouth Carolina State Bulldogs — $43.44
Pan9X
Notre Dame Fighting Irish — $12.45
ameisgoat11
Notre Dame Fighting Irish — $5
Flaznorp
Notre Dame Fighting Irish — $2.75