Santa Clara Broncos vs. North Texas Mean Green

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold North Texas Mean Green (80%) · North Texas Mean Green at 62¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Santa Clara Broncos39¢North Texas Mean Green61¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

North Texas Mean Green

Consensus Traders

North Texas Mean Green 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$306.28

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 61.5¢

+24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorth Texas Mean Green at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas Mean Green

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Santa Clara Broncos39%

North Texas Mean Green62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

North Texas Mean Green8 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,341

Combined PnL+$457.72

Santa Clara Broncos2 traders

Total Value$607.9

Total Shares1,466

Combined PnL-$151.44

North Texas Mean Green — 80%Santa Clara Broncos — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	North Texas Mean Greenavg 47.8¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$356.64	47% 299-342 (641)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 57.3¢	$1.1K	$729.36	-$41.79	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ North Texas Mean Green leg	North Texas Mean Greenavg 57.3¢	$530.19	$541.74	+$11.55
└ Santa Clara Broncos leg	Santa Clara Broncosavg 47¢	$212.63	$187.61	-$53.35
SU suitcase6628CTR	Santa Clara Broncosavg 51.7¢	$465	$364.5	-$100.5	64% 280-160 (440)
0X 0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72feCTR	Santa Clara Broncosavg 52¢	$294.34	$243.4	-$50.94	1% 1-124 (125)
RN1	North Texas Mean Greenavg 59.1¢	$186.73	$205.11	+$18.39	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
38 38791873984189	North Texas Mean Greenavg 53.3¢	$114.53	$146.18	+$31.65	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
VeryLucky888	North Texas Mean Greenavg 47.3¢	$98.46	$129.71	+$39.47	52% 497-453 (950)
TH thirdt1me<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 62.3¢	$43.87	$47.85	+$3.98	43% 125-167 (292)
PA Pan9X<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 60.2¢	$33.75	$33.51	-$0.24	49% 693-734 (1427)
LI LightParadox<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 48¢	$21.31	$18.04	+$7.23	31% 412-920 (1332)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 56¢	$2.86	$3.48	+$0.61	53% 1852-1667 (3519)

SnakeBall

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$1,726.61

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$356.64

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

FlaznorpARB<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$1,073.07

Value

$729.36

PnL

-$41.79

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

North Texas Mean Green$530.1957.3¢+$11.55

Santa Clara Broncos$212.6347¢-$53.35

suitcase6628CTR

Santa Clara Broncos

Invested

$465

Value

$364.5

PnL

-$100.5

Record

64%

280-160 (440)

0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72feCTR

Santa Clara Broncos

Invested

$294.34

Value

$243.4

PnL

-$50.94

Record

1-124 (125)

RN1

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$186.73

Value

$205.11

PnL

+$18.39

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

38791873984189

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$114.53

Value

$146.18

PnL

+$31.65

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

VeryLucky888

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$98.46

Value

$129.71

PnL

+$39.47

Record

52%

497-453 (950)

thirdt1me<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$43.87

Value

$47.85

PnL

+$3.98

Record

43%

125-167 (292)

Pan9X<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$33.75

Value

$33.51

PnL

-$0.24

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

LightParadox<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$21.31

Value

$18.04

PnL

+$7.23

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$2.86

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Research grade

AvoidNorth Texas Mean Green at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas Mean Green

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Texas Mean Green wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.