South Alabama Jaguars vs. North Texas Mean Green: O/U 136.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 62¢ · $486 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
$486.48
-$6.08
53¢ → 62¢
+17% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 62%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 53.1¢ | $259.38 | $286.02 | +$26.64 | 56% 3718-2886 (6604) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 46.9¢ | $95.53 | $81.39 | -$14.14 | 35% 166-306 (472) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 47.3¢ | $70.99 | $60 | -$11 | 54% 1525-1316 (2841) |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $57.5 | $50 | -$7.5 | 36% 118-207 (325) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $4.2 | $4.15 | -$0.05 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.93 | +$0.47 | 45% 277-332 (609) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2 | -$0.5 | 41% 708-1019 (1727) |
Invested
$259.38
Value
$286.02
PnL
+$26.64
Record
56%
3718-2886 (6604)
Invested
$95.53
Value
$81.39
PnL
-$14.14
Record
35%
166-306 (472)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$70.99
Value
$60
PnL
-$11
Record
54%
1525-1316 (2841)
Invested
$57.5
Value
$50
PnL
-$7.5
Record
36%
118-207 (325)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.15
PnL
-$0.05
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$0.47
Record
45%
277-332 (609)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2
PnL
-$0.5
Record
41%
708-1019 (1727)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.