Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold North Texas Mean Green, while the market favors South Alabama Jaguars (82%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: North Texas Mean Green (-8.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold North Texas Mean Green (22%) · North Texas Mean Green at 18¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

North Texas Mean Green18¢South Alabama Jaguars82¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

North Texas Mean Green

Consensus Traders

North Texas Mean Green 22%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$4.2

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 18¢

-66% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorth Texas Mean Green at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas Mean Green

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors South Alabama Jaguars 82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

North Texas Mean Green18%

South Alabama Jaguars82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

North Texas Mean Green2 traders

Total Value$540.98

Total Shares1,012

Combined PnL+$12.26

South Alabama Jaguars7 traders

Total Value$481.24

Total Shares1,011

Combined PnL-$16.46

North Texas Mean Green — 22%South Alabama Jaguars — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on North Texas Mean Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth Alabama Jaguars 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouth Alabama Jaguars 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000South Alabama Jaguars 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603CTR	North Texas Mean Greenavg 52.3¢	$528.41	$540.64	+$12.23	60% 15-10 (25)
BI biying99999	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 48¢	$250.14	$242.27	-$7.87	36% 118-207 (325)
HO HomeRunHazard	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 48.1¢	$187.17	$182.09	-$5.08	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 48¢	$48	$46.5	-$1.5	35% 166-306 (472)
PA Pan9X<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 59¢	$2.96	$3.12	+$0.15	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 59¢	$2.96	$3.12	+$0.15	55% 1703-1404 (3107)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.33	-$0.22	41% 708-1019 (1727)
VeryLucky888<$100	South Alabama Jaguarsavg 49¢	$98.96	$1.83	-$2.08	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
RN1CTR<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 24¢	$0.32	$0.34	+$0.03	55% 5525-4565 (10090)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603CTR

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$528.41

Value

$540.64

PnL

+$12.23

Record

60%

15-10 (25)

biying99999

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$250.14

Value

$242.27

PnL

-$7.87

Record

36%

118-207 (325)

HomeRunHazard

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$187.17

Value

$182.09

PnL

-$5.08

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

BoomLaLa<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$48

Value

$46.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

35%

166-306 (472)

Pan9X<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$2.96

Value

$3.12

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$2.96

Value

$3.12

PnL

+$0.15

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

ameisgoat11<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.22

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

VeryLucky888<$100

South Alabama Jaguars

Invested

$98.96

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$2.08

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

RN1CTR<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

Research grade

AvoidNorth Texas Mean Green at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas Mean Green

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors South Alabama Jaguars 82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on North Texas Mean Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSouth Alabama Jaguars 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouth Alabama Jaguars 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000South Alabama Jaguars 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Texas Mean Green wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.8%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$405.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

505.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.