Richmond Spiders vs. Southern Illinois Salukis: O/U 153.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 55¢ · $829 held · ended Nov 13

Over55¢Under45¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$828.82

Combined PnL

-$12.54

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 54.5¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$481.45

Total Shares1,022

Combined PnL-$13.1

Under4 traders

Total Value$347.37

Total Shares658

Combined PnL+$0.56

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Overavg 48.4¢	$482.7	$468.59	-$14.11	56% 324-253 (577)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 52.6¢	$323.77	$326.05	+$2.27	57% 3461-2635 (6096)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$16.54	$14.2	-$2.34	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 47¢	$6.21	$7.26	+$1.06	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Underavg 50¢	$800	$4.77	+$0.72	81% 99-23 (122)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$4.75	$4.7	-$0.05	38% 512-824 (1336)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$2.44	$2.36	-$0.09	55% 213-176 (389)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 47¢	$0.9	$0.9	-$0	52% 881-800 (1681)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$482.7

Value

$468.59

PnL

-$14.11

Record

56%

324-253 (577)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$323.77

Value

$326.05

PnL

+$2.27

Record

57%

3461-2635 (6096)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.54

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$2.34

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$6.21

Value

$7.26

PnL

+$1.06

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Under

Invested

$800

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.72

Record

81%

99-23 (122)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

512-824 (1336)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.44

Value

$2.36

PnL

-$0.09

Record

55%

213-176 (389)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

881-800 (1681)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.