Spread: Richmond Spiders (-2.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Southern Illinois Salukis (60%) · Southern Illinois Salukis at 95¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Southern Illinois Salukis
5
Southern Illinois Salukis 60%
$1.1K
$237.19
48.3¢ → 95¢
+97% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSouthern Illinois Salukis at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Southern Illinois Salukis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Southern Illinois Salukisavg 48.2¢ | $776.93 | $1.0K | +$233.86 | 57% 3461-2635 (6096) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Richmond Spidersavg 49¢ | $47.8 | $47.8 | +$0 | 19% 127-534 (661) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Southern Illinois Salukisavg 51¢ | $13.77 | $17.01 | +$3.24 | 55% 213-176 (389) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Richmond Spidersavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.45 | +$0 | 38% 512-824 (1336) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Southern Illinois Salukisavg 63¢ | $1.94 | $2.03 | +$0.09 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
Invested
$776.93
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$233.86
Record
57%
3461-2635 (6096)
Invested
$47.8
Value
$47.8
PnL
+$0
Record
19%
127-534 (661)
Invested
$13.77
Value
$17.01
PnL
+$3.24
Record
55%
213-176 (389)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
512-824 (1336)
Invested
$1.94
Value
$2.03
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.