Rice Owls vs. Stanford Cardinal

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Stanford Cardinal (60%) · Stanford Cardinal at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10

Rice Owls<1¢Stanford Cardinal>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Stanford Cardinal

Consensus Traders

Stanford Cardinal 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$44.01

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidStanford Cardinal at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Stanford Cardinal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rice Owls0%

Stanford Cardinal100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Stanford Cardinal3 traders

Total Value$930.03

Total Shares938

Combined PnL+$48.89

Rice Owls2 traders

Total Value$5.75

Total Shares96

Combined PnL-$4.88

Stanford Cardinal — 60%Rice Owls — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Stanford Cardinal. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rice Owls) and the top 1000 (5 on Stanford Cardinal) disagree here.

sharpRice Owls 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrStanford Cardinal 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRice Owls 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Stanford Cardinal 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Stanford Cardinalavg 94¢	$792.11	$835.09	+$46.77	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Stanford Cardinalavg 94¢	$177.88	$186.09	-$42.08	46% 124-145 (269)
└ Stanford Cardinal leg	Stanford Cardinalavg 94¢	$118.39	$124.82	+$6.17
└ Rice Owls leg	Rice Owlsavg 5.8¢	$59.49	$61.27	-$48.25
SE sentrio<$100	Stanford Cardinalavg 94¢	$61.1	$64.42	+$1.98	27% 133-354 (487)
PA Pan9X<$100	Stanford Cardinalavg 99.1¢	$30.53	$30.53	+$0.14	47% 329-371 (700)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Rice Owlsavg 6¢	$3.9	$3.9	-$3.19	23% 176-590 (766)
RN1CTR<$100	Rice Owlsavg 6¢	$1.85	$1.85	-$1.7	58% 3628-2593 (6221)

Flaznorp

Stanford Cardinal

Invested

$792.11

Value

$835.09

PnL

+$46.77

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Stanford Cardinal

Invested

$177.88

Value

$186.09

PnL

-$42.08

Record

46%

124-145 (269)

Both legs:

Stanford Cardinal$118.3994¢+$6.17

Rice Owls$59.495.8¢-$48.25

sentrio<$100

Stanford Cardinal

Invested

$61.1

Value

$64.42

PnL

+$1.98

Record

27%

133-354 (487)

Pan9X<$100

Stanford Cardinal

Invested

$30.53

Value

$30.53

PnL

+$0.14

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Rice Owls

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$3.19

Record

23%

176-590 (766)

RN1CTR<$100

Rice Owls

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$1.7

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

Research grade

AvoidStanford Cardinal at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Stanford Cardinal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Stanford Cardinal. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Rice Owls) and the top 1000 (5 on Stanford Cardinal) disagree here.

sharpRice Owls 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrStanford Cardinal 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRice Owls 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Stanford Cardinal 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Stanford Cardinal wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.