Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Portland State Vikings vs. San Francisco Dons: O/U 143.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 43¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$3.96

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 43¢

-17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,655

Combined PnL-$19.64

Over5 traders

Total Value$374.46

Total Shares759

Combined PnL+$23.59

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 51¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603CTR	Underavg 53.3¢	$436.05	$416.89	-$19.16	60% 15-10 (25)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Overavg 50¢	$650	$196	+$8	68% 136-63 (199)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 46.4¢	$263.38	$55.47	+$10.59	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Overavg 48¢	$48	$49	+$1	35% 166-306 (472)
FO forecastication4<$100	Overavg 46¢	$45.09	$48.04	+$2.94	34% 175-339 (514)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 47¢	$24.9	$25.96	+$1.06	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$24.96	$24.48	-$0.48	53% 310-274 (584)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,422.8

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603CTR

Under

Invested

$436.05

Value

$416.89

PnL

-$19.16

Record

60%

15-10 (25)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Over

Invested

$650

Value

$196

PnL

+$8

Record

68%

136-63 (199)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$263.38

Value

$55.47

PnL

+$10.59

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

BoomLaLa<$100

Over

Invested

$48

Value

$49

PnL

+$1

Record

35%

166-306 (472)

forecastication4<$100

Over

Invested

$45.09

Value

$48.04

PnL

+$2.94

Record

34%

175-339 (514)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$24.9

Value

$25.96

PnL

+$1.06

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.96

Value

$24.48

PnL

-$0.48

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.