Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold San Francisco Dons, while the market favors Portland State Vikings (57%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: San Francisco Dons (-10.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold San Francisco Dons (80%) · San Francisco Dons at 43¢ · $140 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
San Francisco Dons
5
San Francisco Dons 80%
$139.79
-$9.41
44.9¢ → 42.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSan Francisco Dons at 43%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Portland State Vikings 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on San Francisco Dons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Portland State Vikingsavg 51.8¢ | $47.26 | $43.76 | -$3.5 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | San Francisco Donsavg 42¢ | $42 | $42.5 | +$0.5 | 49% 4068-4262 (8330) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | San Francisco Donsavg 48¢ | $48 | $42 | -$6 | 35% 162-305 (467) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | San Francisco Donsavg 42¢ | $7.24 | $7.33 | +$0.09 | 42% 1051-1465 (2516) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | San Francisco Donsavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $4.2 | -$0.5 | 41% 705-1014 (1719) |
Invested
$47.26
Value
$43.76
PnL
-$3.5
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$42
Value
$42.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
49%
4068-4262 (8330)
Invested
$48
Value
$42
PnL
-$6
Record
35%
162-305 (467)
Invested
$7.24
Value
$7.33
PnL
+$0.09
Record
42%
1051-1465 (2516)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.5
Record
41%
705-1014 (1719)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.