Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Portland Pilots vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: O/U 157.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 47¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 86%
$5.0K
$180.75
52.5¢ → 46.5¢
-12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 47.1¢ | $2.4K | $2.7K | +$213.35 | 57% 3010-2261 (5271) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR | Underavg 53¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$40 | 0% 1-491 (492) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 50¢ | $166.5 | $173.16 | +$6.66 | 57% 70-52 (122) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $46.5 | $48.36 | +$1.86 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $47 | $47.5 | +$0.5 | 12% 22-166 (188) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $50 | $23.54 | -$1.67 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $5 | $5.05 | +$0.05 | 20% 113-461 (574) |
Invested
$2,437.64
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$213.35
Record
57%
3010-2261 (5271)
Invested
$2,120
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$40
Record
0%
1-491 (492)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$166.5
Value
$173.16
PnL
+$6.66
Record
57%
70-52 (122)
Invested
$46.5
Value
$48.36
PnL
+$1.86
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$47
Value
$47.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
12%
22-166 (188)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$23.54
PnL
-$1.67
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
20%
113-461 (574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.