Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Portland Pilots vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: O/U 156.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 30¢ · $252 held · ended Nov 10

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$252.23

Combined PnL

-$59.18

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 30¢

-32% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$126.89

Total Shares276

Combined PnL+$0.92

Over2 traders

Total Value$125.34

Total Shares418

Combined PnL-$60.1

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GT gt7238	Underavg 45.6¢	$123.57	$124.59	+$1.02	2% 7-438 (445)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 53¢	$142.46	$80.7	-$61.76	57% 3062-2301 (5363)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 28.9¢	$42.97	$44.64	+$1.66	50% 1362-1381 (2743)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.3	-$0.1	21% 127-474 (601)

gt7238

Under

Invested

$123.57

Value

$124.59

PnL

+$1.02

Record

7-438 (445)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$142.46

Value

$80.7

PnL

-$61.76

Record

57%

3062-2301 (5363)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.97

Value

$44.64

PnL

+$1.66

Record

50%

1362-1381 (2743)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

21%

127-474 (601)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.