Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-8.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Portland Pilots (40%) · Portland Pilots at 55¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Portland Pilots
5
Portland Pilots 40%
$2.4K
$-1.1K
52.1¢ → 54.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPortland Pilots at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Portland Pilots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Portland Pilotsavg 52.1¢ | $1.8K | $2.1K | +$238.82 | 54% 1588-1335 (2923) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 48¢ | $1.5K | $202.01 | $-1.3K | 57% 3062-2301 (5363) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 46.7¢ | $256.46 | $158.85 | -$97.61 | 50% 1362-1381 (2743) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Portland Pilotsavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.95 | +$0.35 | 21% 127-474 (601) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 6¢ | $0.3 | $1.42 | +$1.12 | 63% 1294-775 (2069) |
Invested
$1,815.08
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$238.82
Record
54%
1588-1335 (2923)
Invested
$1,459.06
Value
$202.01
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
57%
3062-2301 (5363)
Invested
$256.46
Value
$158.85
PnL
-$97.61
Record
50%
1362-1381 (2743)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0.35
Record
21%
127-474 (601)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$1.42
PnL
+$1.12
Record
63%
1294-775 (2069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.