Portland Pilots vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (73%) · Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at 73¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 10

Portland Pilots28¢Hawaii Rainbow Warriors72¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Consensus Traders

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 73%

Total Value

$37.2K

Combined PnL

-$103.08

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 72.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawaii Rainbow Warriors at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Portland Pilots28%

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors8 traders

Total Value$24.3K

Total Shares33,091

Combined PnL-$159.53

Portland Pilots3 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares38,864

Combined PnL+$56.45

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors — 73%Portland Pilots — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHawaii Rainbow Warriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHawaii Rainbow Warriors 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawaii Rainbow Warriors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 72.2¢	$16.3K	$16.3K	-$3.29	57% 3010-2261 (5271)
nigiri99CTR	Portland Pilotsavg 27.3¢	$12.1K	$11.5K	+$66.2	52% 92-86 (178)
FL Flaznorp	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 73.4¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$97.75	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
SN SnakeBall	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 73.9¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$39.91	46% 124-145 (269)
FY fydiCTR	Portland Pilotsavg 27.2¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$10	— 1-1 (2)
0xheavy888	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 74.3¢	$747.73	$725.35	-$7.67	57% 70-52 (122)
BO BoomLaLa	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 71.5¢	$267.28	$269.28	+$2	12% 22-166 (188)
VeryLucky888	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 72¢	$216	$216	+$0	47% 171-192 (363)
38 38791873984189	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 74.2¢	$742.25	$214.5	-$13.22	48% 603-645 (1248)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 74.1¢	$8.66	$9.01	+$0.31	47% 329-371 (700)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Portland Pilotsavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.4	+$0.25	20% 113-461 (574)

HomeRunHazard

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$16,284.15

Value

$16.3K

PnL

-$3.29

Record

57%

3010-2261 (5271)

nigiri99CTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$12,101.96

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$66.2

Record

52%

92-86 (178)

Flaznorp

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$5,174.21

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$97.75

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

SnakeBall

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$1,582.42

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$39.91

Record

46%

124-145 (269)

fydiCTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$1,359.89

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$10

Record

—

1-1 (2)

0xheavy888

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$747.73

Value

$725.35

PnL

-$7.67

Record

57%

70-52 (122)

BoomLaLa

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$267.28

Value

$269.28

PnL

+$2

Record

12%

22-166 (188)

VeryLucky888

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$216

Value

$216

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

171-192 (363)

38791873984189

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$742.25

Value

$214.5

PnL

-$13.22

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Pan9X<$100

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$8.66

Value

$9.01

PnL

+$0.31

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Portland Pilots

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.25

Record

20%

113-461 (574)

Research grade

AvoidHawaii Rainbow Warriors at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHawaii Rainbow Warriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHawaii Rainbow Warriors 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawaii Rainbow Warriors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawaii Rainbow Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.