Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pepperdine Waves, while the market favors Sam Houston Bearkats (56%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pepperdine Waves (-3.5)

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pepperdine Waves (100%) · Pepperdine Waves at 45¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

Pepperdine Waves45¢Sam Houston Bearkats55¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pepperdine Waves

Consensus Traders

Pepperdine Waves 100%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$420.46

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 44.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPepperdine Waves at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pepperdine Waves

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Sam Houston Bearkats 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pepperdine Waves45%

Sam Houston Bearkats56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pepperdine Waves6 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares12,637

Combined PnL+$420.46

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Pepperdine Waves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPepperdine Waves 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPepperdine Waves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pepperdine Waves 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pepperdine Wavesavg 44.4¢	$4.1K	$4.4K	+$320.41	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Pepperdine Wavesavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$80.49	59% 441-301 (742)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pepperdine Wavesavg 46¢	$165.14	$172.32	+$7.18	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
0xheavy888CTR	Pepperdine Wavesavg 46¢	$153.18	$159.84	+$6.66	55% 205-165 (370)
VeryLucky888CTR	Pepperdine Wavesavg 45.3¢	$136	$81.76	+$5.46	52% 497-452 (949)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 46.3¢	$6.95	$7.2	+$0.25	34% 327-634 (961)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$4,117.87

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$320.41

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$1,207.35

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$80.49

Record

59%

441-301 (742)

FlaznorpCTR

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$165.14

Value

$172.32

PnL

+$7.18

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

0xheavy888CTR

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$153.18

Value

$159.84

PnL

+$6.66

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

VeryLucky888CTR

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$136

Value

$81.76

PnL

+$5.46

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$6.95

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.25

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

Research grade

AvoidPepperdine Waves at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pepperdine Waves

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Sam Houston Bearkats 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Pepperdine Waves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPepperdine Waves 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPepperdine Waves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pepperdine Waves 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pepperdine Waves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.