Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pepperdine Waves, while the market favors Sam Houston Bearkats (52%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pepperdine Waves (-2.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Pepperdine Waves (86%) · Pepperdine Waves at 49¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

Pepperdine Waves49¢Sam Houston Bearkats51¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pepperdine Waves

Consensus Traders

Pepperdine Waves 86%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$186.25

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 48.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPepperdine Waves at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pepperdine Waves

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Sam Houston Bearkats 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pepperdine Waves49%

Sam Houston Bearkats52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pepperdine Waves6 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares11,032

Combined PnL+$186.25

Sam Houston Bearkats1 trader

Total Value$153.37

Total Shares313

Combined PnL-$0

Pepperdine Waves — 86%Sam Houston Bearkats — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Pepperdine Waves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPepperdine Waves 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedPepperdine Waves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pepperdine Waves 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pepperdine Wavesavg 49.2¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$121.44	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Pepperdine Wavesavg 49¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$65.44	59% 441-301 (742)
0xheavy888CTR	Pepperdine Wavesavg 50.7¢	$252.33	$249	-$3.33	55% 205-165 (370)
FL Flaznorp	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 49¢	$153.37	$153.37	-$0	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
VeryLucky888CTR	Pepperdine Wavesavg 49.5¢	$99	$102	+$3	52% 497-452 (949)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 51¢	$47.22	$47.22	+$0	49% 57-60 (117)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 51.5¢	$7.8	$7.5	-$0.3	34% 327-634 (961)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$3,459.78

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$121.44

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$1,603.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$65.44

Record

59%

441-301 (742)

0xheavy888CTR

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$252.33

Value

$249

PnL

-$3.33

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

Flaznorp

Sam Houston Bearkats

Invested

$153.37

Value

$153.37

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

VeryLucky888CTR

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$99

Value

$102

PnL

+$3

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$47.22

Value

$47.22

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

57-60 (117)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

Research grade

AvoidPepperdine Waves at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pepperdine Waves

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Sam Houston Bearkats 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Pepperdine Waves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPepperdine Waves 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedPepperdine Waves 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pepperdine Waves 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pepperdine Waves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.