Spread: Pepperdine Waves (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pepperdine Waves (50%) · Pepperdine Waves at 56¢ · $550 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Pepperdine Waves
6
Pepperdine Waves 50%
$549.82
-$2.25
55.8¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPepperdine Waves at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Pepperdine Waves. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Pepperdine Wavesavg 55.7¢ | $467.14 | $469.22 | +$2.08 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Pepperdine Wavesavg 57¢ | $57 | $56 | -$1 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 43¢ | $18.49 | $18.06 | -$0.43 | 18% 48-217 (265) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 42¢ | $2.77 | $2.87 | +$0.1 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Pepperdine Wavesavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.82 | +$0.02 | 32% 297-622 (919) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 46¢ | $46 | $0.84 | -$3.02 | 52% 464-433 (897) |
Invested
$467.14
Value
$469.22
PnL
+$2.08
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$57
Value
$56
PnL
-$1
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
Invested
$18.49
Value
$18.06
PnL
-$0.43
Record
18%
48-217 (265)
Invested
$2.77
Value
$2.87
PnL
+$0.1
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.82
PnL
+$0.02
Record
32%
297-622 (919)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$46
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$3.02
Record
52%
464-433 (897)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.