Pepperdine Waves vs. Sam Houston Bearkats

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sam Houston Bearkats (56%) · Sam Houston Bearkats at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Pepperdine Waves14¢Sam Houston Bearkats86¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sam Houston Bearkats

Consensus Traders

Sam Houston Bearkats 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$367.97

Smart Money Entry

43.6¢ → 85.5¢

+96% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSam Houston Bearkats at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston Bearkats

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pepperdine Waves14%

Sam Houston Bearkats86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sam Houston Bearkats5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,586

Combined PnL+$547.02

Pepperdine Waves4 traders

Total Value$282.47

Total Shares779

Combined PnL-$179.05

Sam Houston Bearkats — 56%Pepperdine Waves — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston Bearkats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSam Houston Bearkats 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedSam Houston Bearkats 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sam Houston Bearkats 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 45.1¢	$532.54	$964.92	+$432.38	47% 299-342 (641)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 53.5¢	$793.94	$396.09	-$370.52	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Sam Houston Bearkats leg	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 51.6¢	$125.25	$202.78	+$77.53
└ Pepperdine Waves leg	Pepperdine Wavesavg 53.5¢	$626.91	$193.31	-$448.06
VE Venusian	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 36.3¢	$132.76	$235.71	+$102.95	31% 411-924 (1335)
0xheavy888CTR	Pepperdine Wavesavg 58¢	$355.04	$217.31	-$137.73	55% 205-165 (370)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 31¢	$93.04	$96.25	+$48.75	31% 412-920 (1332)
└ Sam Houston Bearkats leg	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 31¢	$26.66	$71.81	+$45.15
└ Pepperdine Waves leg	Pepperdine Wavesavg 31¢	$45.92	$24.44	+$3.6
RN1<$100	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 62¢	$41.65	$43.33	+$1.68	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 55.9¢	$58.73	$36.77	-$21.96	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 69¢	$34.5	$16.99	-$16.51	43% 125-167 (292)
38 38791873984189<$100	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 48¢	$9.66	$12.97	+$3.31	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 31¢	$6.2	$12.9	+$6.7	64% 280-160 (440)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 69¢	$15.42	$11.39	-$2.86	49% 693-734 (1427)

SnakeBall

Sam Houston Bearkats

Invested

$532.54

Value

$964.92

PnL

+$432.38

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$793.94

Value

$396.09

PnL

-$370.52

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Sam Houston Bearkats$125.2551.6¢+$77.53

Pepperdine Waves$626.9153.5¢-$448.06

Venusian

Sam Houston Bearkats

Invested

$132.76

Value

$235.71

PnL

+$102.95

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

0xheavy888CTR

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$355.04

Value

$217.31

PnL

-$137.73

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$93.04

Value

$96.25

PnL

+$48.75

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

Both legs:

Sam Houston Bearkats$26.6631¢+$45.15

Pepperdine Waves$45.9231¢+$3.6

RN1<$100

Sam Houston Bearkats

Invested

$41.65

Value

$43.33

PnL

+$1.68

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$58.73

Value

$36.77

PnL

-$21.96

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$34.5

Value

$16.99

PnL

-$16.51

Record

43%

125-167 (292)

38791873984189<$100

Sam Houston Bearkats

Invested

$9.66

Value

$12.97

PnL

+$3.31

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

suitcase6628<$100

Sam Houston Bearkats

Invested

$6.2

Value

$12.9

PnL

+$6.7

Record

64%

280-160 (440)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$15.42

Value

$11.39

PnL

-$2.86

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

Research grade

AvoidSam Houston Bearkats at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston Bearkats

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston Bearkats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSam Houston Bearkats 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedSam Houston Bearkats 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sam Houston Bearkats 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sam Houston Bearkats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.