Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Penn State Nittany Lions (44%) · Penn State Nittany Lions at 56¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 9

Penn State Nittany Lions56¢Pittsburgh Panthers44¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Penn State Nittany Lions

Consensus Traders

Penn State Nittany Lions 44%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$3.42

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 55.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidPenn State Nittany Lions at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Penn State Nittany Lions

4 of 9 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Penn State Nittany Lions56%

Pittsburgh Panthers45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penn State Nittany Lions4 traders

Total Value$555.57

Total Shares1,026

Combined PnL-$14.06

Pittsburgh Panthers5 traders

Total Value$463.16

Total Shares828

Combined PnL+$17.48

Penn State Nittany Lions — 44%Pittsburgh Panthers — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pittsburgh Panthersavg 56¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$4.05	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
└ Pittsburgh Panthers leg	Pittsburgh Panthersavg 56¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.34
└ Penn State Nittany Lions leg	Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 45¢	$431.52	$417.13	-$14.38
FL Flaznorp	Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 57.3¢	$516.29	$499.71	-$16.58	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
RN1ARB<$100	Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 53.5¢	$476.05	$444.49	-$31.56	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Penn State Nittany Lions leg	Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 53.5¢	$276.87	$287.08	+$10.21
└ Pittsburgh Panthers leg	Pittsburgh Panthersavg 56.3¢	$199.18	$157.41	-$41.77
SN SnakeBallCTR	Pittsburgh Panthersavg 56¢	$209.9	$219.28	+$9.37	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 45¢	$127.9	$141.49	+$13.59	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
└ Penn State Nittany Lions leg	Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 45¢	$66.8	$82.39	+$15.59
└ Pittsburgh Panthers leg	Pittsburgh Panthersavg 46¢	$61.1	$59.11	-$1.99
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Pittsburgh Panthersavg 56¢	$91.84	$92.66	+$0.82	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Pittsburgh Panthersavg 36¢	$66.8	$82.57	+$15.77	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Pittsburgh Panthersavg 57¢	$61.96	$54.39	-$7.57	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
0xheavy888<$100	Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 43¢	$38.94	$39.39	+$0.45	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pittsburgh Panthersavg 61¢	$15.18	$14.27	-$0.91	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
TA takeormake<$100	Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 40¢	$10.01	$12.13	+$2.12	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Penn State Nittany Lionsavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.35	-$0.05	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pittsburgh Panthers

Invested

$1,589.46

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$4.05

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

Both legs:

Pittsburgh Panthers$1,157.9456¢+$10.34

Penn State Nittany Lions$431.5245¢-$14.38

Flaznorp

Penn State Nittany Lions

Invested

$516.29

Value

$499.71

PnL

-$16.58

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

RN1ARB<$100

Penn State Nittany Lions

Invested

$476.05

Value

$444.49

PnL

-$31.56

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Penn State Nittany Lions$276.8753.5¢+$10.21

Pittsburgh Panthers$199.1856.3¢-$41.77

SnakeBallCTR

Pittsburgh Panthers

Invested

$209.9

Value

$219.28

PnL

+$9.37

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

VenusianARB<$100

Penn State Nittany Lions

Invested

$127.9

Value

$141.49

PnL

+$13.59

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

Both legs:

Penn State Nittany Lions$66.845¢+$15.59

Pittsburgh Panthers$61.146¢-$1.99

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Pittsburgh Panthers

Invested

$91.84

Value

$92.66

PnL

+$0.82

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Pittsburgh Panthers

Invested

$66.8

Value

$82.57

PnL

+$15.77

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Pittsburgh Panthers

Invested

$61.96

Value

$54.39

PnL

-$7.57

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

0xheavy888<$100

Penn State Nittany Lions

Invested

$38.94

Value

$39.39

PnL

+$0.45

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pittsburgh Panthers

Invested

$15.18

Value

$14.27

PnL

-$0.91

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

takeormake<$100

Penn State Nittany Lions

Invested

$10.01

Value

$12.13

PnL

+$2.12

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

ameisgoat11<$100

Penn State Nittany Lions

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

AvoidPenn State Nittany Lions at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Penn State Nittany Lions

4 of 9 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Penn State Nittany Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.