Spread: Saint Joseph's Hawks (-4.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Penn Quakers (33%) · Penn Quakers at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Saint Joseph's Hawks47¢Penn Quakers53¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

Penn Quakers

Consensus Traders

Penn Quakers 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$61.29

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 53¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidPenn Quakers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Penn Quakers

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Saint Joseph's Hawks47%

Penn Quakers53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penn Quakers2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,944

Combined PnL+$57.39

Saint Joseph's Hawks4 traders

Total Value$658.46

Total Shares1,330

Combined PnL+$3.9

Penn Quakers — 33%Saint Joseph's Hawks — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Penn Quakersavg 49.9¢	$828.04	$879.55	+$51.51	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
HI hi774cCTR	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 50¢	$518.12	$512.93	-$5.18	22% 179-619 (798)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 48.3¢	$263.72	$220.28	-$2.54	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
└ Saint Joseph's Hawks leg	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 48.3¢	$168.22	$168.78	+$1.76
└ Penn Quakers leg	Penn Quakersavg 54¢	$54	$51.5	-$4.3
HO HomeRunHazard	Penn Quakersavg 50.9¢	$144.64	$150.53	+$5.89	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 46¢	$86.02	$92.57	+$6.55	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 47¢	$47	$49.5	+$2.5	35% 162-305 (467)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Saint Joseph's Hawksavg 49¢	$3.43	$3.47	+$0.03	50% 1594-1620 (3214)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Penn Quakers

Invested

$828.04

Value

$879.55

PnL

+$51.51

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

hi774cCTR

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$518.12

Value

$512.93

PnL

-$5.18

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$263.72

Value

$220.28

PnL

-$2.54

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Both legs:

Saint Joseph's Hawks$168.2248.3¢+$1.76

Penn Quakers$5454¢-$4.3

HomeRunHazard

Penn Quakers

Invested

$144.64

Value

$150.53

PnL

+$5.89

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$86.02

Value

$92.57

PnL

+$6.55

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$47

Value

$49.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

35%

162-305 (467)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Saint Joseph's Hawks

Invested

$3.43

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

Research grade

AvoidPenn Quakers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Penn Quakers

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Penn Quakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.