Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Penn Quakers, while the market favors Navy Midshipmen (64%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Penn Quakers (-8.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Penn Quakers (80%) · Penn Quakers at 37¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Penn Quakers
5
Penn Quakers 80%
$1.7K
$50
45.4¢ → 36.5¢
-20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidPenn Quakers at 37%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Navy Midshipmen 64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Penn Quakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Penn Quakersavg 45.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$12.25 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Penn Quakersavg 45.2¢ | $316.29 | $350.17 | +$33.87 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Penn Quakersavg 45¢ | $257.4 | $286.01 | +$28.6 | 55% 205-165 (370) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Penn Quakersavg 45.5¢ | $18.71 | $18.49 | -$0.22 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Navy Midshipmenavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.65 | +$0 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$1,015.83
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$12.25
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$316.29
Value
$350.17
PnL
+$33.87
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$257.4
Value
$286.01
PnL
+$28.6
Record
55%
205-165 (370)
Invested
$18.71
Value
$18.49
PnL
-$0.22
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.