Spread: Penn Quakers (-7.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Penn Quakers (57%) · Penn Quakers at 51¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Penn Quakers51¢Navy Midshipmen49¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Penn Quakers

Consensus Traders

Penn Quakers 57%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$3.53

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 50.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidPenn Quakers at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Penn Quakers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Penn Quakers51%

Navy Midshipmen50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penn Quakers4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,552

Combined PnL-$44.94

Navy Midshipmen3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,392

Combined PnL+$48.47

Penn Quakers — 57%Navy Midshipmen — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Penn Quakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Navy Midshipmen) and the top 1000 (7 on Penn Quakers) disagree here.

ctrPenn Quakers 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNavy Midshipmen 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Penn Quakers 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	Penn Quakersavg 52.7¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$48.48	50% 53-52 (105)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Navy Midshipmenavg 47.4¢	$733.53	$750.5	+$28.19	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Navy Midshipmenavg 47.5¢	$475	$495	+$20	55% 718-583 (1301)
38 38791873984189	Penn Quakersavg 50.4¢	$368	$304.81	+$3.44	48% 1419-1557 (2976)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Penn Quakersavg 51¢	$45.69	$45.24	-$0.45	9% 24-239 (263)
RN1CTR<$100	Navy Midshipmenavg 48¢	$9.05	$9.34	+$0.28	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
PA Pan9X<$100	Penn Quakersavg 50.7¢	$21.63	$8.54	+$0.54	49% 683-724 (1407)

glennyorkshire

Penn Quakers

Invested

$1,123.34

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$48.48

Record

50%

53-52 (105)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Navy Midshipmen

Invested

$733.53

Value

$750.5

PnL

+$28.19

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Navy Midshipmen

Invested

$475

Value

$495

PnL

+$20

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

38791873984189

Penn Quakers

Invested

$368

Value

$304.81

PnL

+$3.44

Record

48%

1419-1557 (2976)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Penn Quakers

Invested

$45.69

Value

$45.24

PnL

-$0.45

Record

24-239 (263)

RN1CTR<$100

Navy Midshipmen

Invested

$9.05

Value

$9.34

PnL

+$0.28

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

Pan9X<$100

Penn Quakers

Invested

$21.63

Value

$8.54

PnL

+$0.54

Record

49%

683-724 (1407)

Research grade

AvoidPenn Quakers at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Penn Quakers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Penn Quakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Navy Midshipmen) and the top 1000 (7 on Penn Quakers) disagree here.

ctrPenn Quakers 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNavy Midshipmen 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Penn Quakers 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Penn Quakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.