Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Penn Quakers, while the market favors Navy Midshipmen (73%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Penn Quakers (-10.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Penn Quakers (67%) · Penn Quakers at 28¢ · $857 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Penn Quakers
6
Penn Quakers 67%
$857.12
$160.55
42.7¢ → 27.5¢
-36% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidPenn Quakers at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Navy Midshipmen 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Penn Quakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Penn Quakersavg 38¢ | $338.42 | $329.76 | -$8.66 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
FL Flaznorp | Navy Midshipmenavg 32.7¢ | $221.99 | $224.24 | +$164.77 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
 RN1CTR | Penn Quakersavg 68¢ | $162.52 | $162.52 | +$0 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Penn Quakersavg 37.2¢ | $125.09 | $129.39 | +$4.3 | 48% 1419-1557 (2976) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Penn Quakersavg 37¢ | $6.08 | $6.32 | +$0.24 | 49% 683-724 (1407) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Navy Midshipmenavg 61¢ | $5 | $4.9 | -$0.1 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
Invested
$338.42
Value
$329.76
PnL
-$8.66
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$221.99
Value
$224.24
PnL
+$164.77
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
RN1CTRInvested
$162.52
Value
$162.52
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$125.09
Value
$129.39
PnL
+$4.3
Record
48%
1419-1557 (2976)
Invested
$6.08
Value
$6.32
PnL
+$0.24
Record
49%
683-724 (1407)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.