Penn Quakers vs. Navy Midshipmen

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Penn Quakers (71%) · Penn Quakers at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Penn Quakers75¢Navy Midshipmen25¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Penn Quakers

Consensus Traders

Penn Quakers 71%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$2.42

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 74.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPenn Quakers at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Penn Quakers

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Penn Quakers75%

Navy Midshipmen26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penn Quakers5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,930

Combined PnL-$3.34

Navy Midshipmen2 traders

Total Value$6.86

Total Shares26

Combined PnL+$0.92

Penn Quakers — 71%Navy Midshipmen — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Penn Quakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPenn Quakers 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Penn Quakers 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Penn Quakersavg 73.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$2.5	55% 718-583 (1301)
SN SnakeBall	Penn Quakersavg 74¢	$554.59	$550.85	-$3.75	46% 292-339 (631)
0xheavy888	Penn Quakersavg 74¢	$443.67	$440.67	-$3	55% 205-165 (370)
38 38791873984189<$100	Penn Quakersavg 72¢	$40.91	$41.78	+$0.87	48% 1419-1557 (2976)
PA Pan9X<$100	Penn Quakersavg 73.4¢	$18.34	$18.38	+$0.04	49% 683-724 (1407)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Navy Midshipmenavg 25¢	$5	$5.3	+$0.3	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Navy Midshipmenavg 16¢	$0.94	$1.56	+$0.62	18% 49-220 (269)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Penn Quakers

Invested

$1,100

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$2.5

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

SnakeBall

Penn Quakers

Invested

$554.59

Value

$550.85

PnL

-$3.75

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

0xheavy888

Penn Quakers

Invested

$443.67

Value

$440.67

PnL

-$3

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

38791873984189<$100

Penn Quakers

Invested

$40.91

Value

$41.78

PnL

+$0.87

Record

48%

1419-1557 (2976)

Pan9X<$100

Penn Quakers

Invested

$18.34

Value

$18.38

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

683-724 (1407)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Navy Midshipmen

Invested

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Navy Midshipmen

Invested

$0.94

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.62

Record

18%

49-220 (269)

Research grade

AvoidPenn Quakers at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Penn Quakers

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Penn Quakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPenn Quakers 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Penn Quakers 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Penn Quakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.