Paine Lions vs. Jacksonville Dolphins

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jacksonville Dolphins (50%) · Jacksonville Dolphins at 54¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 3

Paine Lions46¢Jacksonville Dolphins54¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jacksonville Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Jacksonville Dolphins 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 54.3¢

-31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidJacksonville Dolphins at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jacksonville Dolphins

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Paine Lions46%

Jacksonville Dolphins54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jacksonville Dolphins3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,290

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Paine Lions3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares6,011

Combined PnL+$259.46

Jacksonville Dolphins — 50%Paine Lions — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omoi0i0ARB<$100	Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 69.4¢	$5.5K	$4.5K	$-1.0K	65% 1527-817 (2344)
└ Jacksonville Dolphins leg	Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 69.4¢	$4.5K	$3.5K	-$961.99
└ Paine Lions leg	Paine Lionsavg 48.8¢	$992.65	$923.59	-$69.06
US User7429	Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 66.7¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$384.09	55% 8417-6766 (15183)
scootergeneCTR	Paine Lionsavg 30.5¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$362.19	54% 380-324 (704)
LA lavendergooms	Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 92.1¢	$2.7K	$1.6K	$-1.1K	53% 2639-2387 (5026)
LO looppauCTR	Paine Lionsavg 45.5¢	$692.22	$565.54	-$126.68	99% 11171-71 (11242)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Paine Lionsavg 7¢	$4.28	$21.16	+$23.95	36% 16083-28096 (44179)
hammyandcheese<$100	Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 63.8¢	$22.01	$18.72	-$3.29	55% 406-328 (734)

omoi0i0ARB<$100

Jacksonville Dolphins

Invested

$5,495.16

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

65%

1527-817 (2344)

Both legs:

Jacksonville Dolphins$4,502.5169.4¢-$961.99

Paine Lions$992.6548.8¢-$69.06

User7429

Jacksonville Dolphins

Invested

$2,189.03

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$384.09

Record

55%

8417-6766 (15183)

scootergeneCTR

Paine Lions

Invested

$1,357.64

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$362.19

Record

54%

380-324 (704)

lavendergooms

Jacksonville Dolphins

Invested

$2,747.18

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

53%

2639-2387 (5026)

looppauCTR

Paine Lions

Invested

$692.22

Value

$565.54

PnL

-$126.68

Record

99%

11171-71 (11242)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Paine Lions

Invested

$4.28

Value

$21.16

PnL

+$23.95

Record

36%

16083-28096 (44179)

hammyandcheese<$100

Jacksonville Dolphins

Invested

$22.01

Value

$18.72

PnL

-$3.29

Record

55%

406-328 (734)

Research grade

AvoidJacksonville Dolphins at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jacksonville Dolphins

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jacksonville Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.5%

54.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.