Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas A&M Aggies: O/U 178.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$0.65

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 51.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$608.84

Total Shares1,182

Combined PnL-$13.71

Under6 traders

Total Value$576.25

Total Shares1,185

Combined PnL+$13.06

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 52.7¢	$578.14	$565.33	-$12.81	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$316.35	$323.01	+$6.66	54% 281-239 (520)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 47¢	$123.07	$121.89	+$3.81	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.1K	$97	+$3	83% 95-20 (115)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 52.5¢	$39.88	$34.25	-$0.63	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$29.43	$28.82	-$0.61	30% 73-167 (240)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 53¢	$9.54	$9.27	-$0.27	55% 210-170 (380)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.01	$4.14	+$0.13	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$1.33	$1.4	+$0.07	27% 102-276 (378)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$578.14

Value

$565.33

PnL

-$12.81

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$316.35

Value

$323.01

PnL

+$6.66

Record

54%

281-239 (520)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$123.07

Value

$121.89

PnL

+$3.81

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,050

Value

$97

PnL

+$3

Record

83%

95-20 (115)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$39.88

Value

$34.25

PnL

-$0.63

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

biying99999CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.43

Value

$28.82

PnL

-$0.61

Record

30%

73-167 (240)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$9.54

Value

$9.27

PnL

-$0.27

Record

55%

210-170 (380)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.01

Value

$4.14

PnL

+$0.13

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.07

Record

27%

102-276 (378)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.