Spread: Texas A&M Aggies (-8.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Texas A&M Aggies (100%) · Texas A&M Aggies at 86¢ · $229 held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Texas A&M Aggies
6
Texas A&M Aggies 100%
$229.43
$4.37
50.6¢ → 85.5¢
+69% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidTexas A&M Aggies at 86%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Texas A&M Aggiesavg 48¢ | $131.52 | $130.15 | -$1.37 | 57% 3461-2635 (6096) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Texas A&M Aggiesavg 48¢ | $38.4 | $38 | -$0.4 | 52% 881-800 (1681) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Texas A&M Aggiesavg 66¢ | $30.9 | $30 | -$0.9 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Texas A&M Aggiesavg 63¢ | $18.9 | $25.8 | +$6.9 | 58% 3342-2409 (5751) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Texas A&M Aggiesavg 71¢ | $2.94 | $3.1 | +$0.17 | 47% 2408-2683 (5091) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Texas A&M Aggiesavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.38 | -$0.02 | 38% 512-824 (1336) |
Invested
$131.52
Value
$130.15
PnL
-$1.37
Record
57%
3461-2635 (6096)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$38.4
Value
$38
PnL
-$0.4
Record
52%
881-800 (1681)
Invested
$30.9
Value
$30
PnL
-$0.9
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
Invested
$18.9
Value
$25.8
PnL
+$6.9
Record
58%
3342-2409 (5751)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$3.1
PnL
+$0.17
Record
47%
2408-2683 (5091)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.38
PnL
-$0.02
Record
38%
512-824 (1336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.