Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Oakland Golden Grizzlies, while the market favors Boise State Broncos (50%). 0 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Boise State Broncos (-16.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Oakland Golden Grizzlies (67%) · Oakland Golden Grizzlies at 50¢ · $143 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Oakland Golden Grizzlies
6
Oakland Golden Grizzlies 67%
$143.44
$1.13
50¢ → 50¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOakland Golden Grizzlies at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Boise State Broncos 50%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Oakland Golden Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189<$100 | Oakland Golden Grizzliesavg 50¢ | $48 | $48.96 | +$0.96 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Oakland Golden Grizzliesavg 50¢ | $44.5 | $44.5 | +$0 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Oakland Golden Grizzliesavg 50¢ | $50 | $44.5 | +$0.11 | 52% 497-452 (949) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Boise State Broncosavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.5 | +$0.05 | 39% 394-619 (1013) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Boise State Broncosavg 49¢ | $2.47 | $2.47 | +$0 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Oakland Golden Grizzliesavg 50¢ | $0.5 | $0.51 | +$0.01 | 34% 327-634 (961) |
Invested
$48
Value
$48.96
PnL
+$0.96
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$44.5
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$50
Value
$44.5
PnL
+$0.11
Record
52%
497-452 (949)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
39%
394-619 (1013)
Invested
$2.47
Value
$2.47
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$0.5
Value
$0.51
PnL
+$0.01
Record
34%
327-634 (961)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.