Spread: Little Rock Trojans (-9.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Northwestern State Demons (50%) · Northwestern State Demons at 72¢ · $840 held · ended Nov 15

Little Rock Trojans28¢Northwestern State Demons72¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Northwestern State Demons

Consensus Traders

Northwestern State Demons 50%

Total Value

$840.04

Combined PnL

$74.04

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 71.5¢

+36% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorthwestern State Demons at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Northwestern State Demons

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Little Rock Trojans28%

Northwestern State Demons72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Northwestern State Demons3 traders

Total Value$559.06

Total Shares753

Combined PnL+$163.56

Little Rock Trojans3 traders

Total Value$280.99

Total Shares789

Combined PnL-$89.52

Northwestern State Demons — 50%Little Rock Trojans — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Northwestern State Demons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLittle Rock Trojans 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Little Rock Trojans 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Northwestern State Demonsavg 52.6¢	$384.07	$548.03	+$163.96	56% 3745-2909 (6654)
GA gagarin59CTR	Little Rock Trojansavg 47¢	$356.73	$269.44	-$87.28	41% 69-99 (168)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Little Rock Trojansavg 45¢	$8.93	$7.04	-$1.88	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Northwestern State Demonsavg 55¢	$6.6	$5.7	-$0.9	53% 323-288 (611)
38 38791873984189<$100	Northwestern State Demonsavg 48¢	$4.83	$5.33	+$0.5	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Little Rock Trojansavg 48.5¢	$4.85	$4.5	-$0.35	41% 726-1032 (1758)

HomeRunHazard

Northwestern State Demons

Invested

$384.07

Value

$548.03

PnL

+$163.96

Record

56%

3745-2909 (6654)

gagarin59CTR

Little Rock Trojans

Invested

$356.73

Value

$269.44

PnL

-$87.28

Record

41%

69-99 (168)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Little Rock Trojans

Invested

$8.93

Value

$7.04

PnL

-$1.88

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Northwestern State Demons

Invested

$6.6

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$0.9

Record

53%

323-288 (611)

38791873984189<$100

Northwestern State Demons

Invested

$4.83

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$0.5

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Little Rock Trojans

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.35

Record

41%

726-1032 (1758)

Research grade

AvoidNorthwestern State Demons at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Northwestern State Demons

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Northwestern State Demons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLittle Rock Trojans 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Little Rock Trojans 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Northwestern State Demons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.