Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold UTEP Miners, while the market favors New Mexico State Aggies (52%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: UTEP Miners (-5.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UTEP Miners (83%) · UTEP Miners at 49¢ · $911 held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
UTEP Miners
6
UTEP Miners 83%
$911.38
$9.82
45.3¢ → 48.5¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUTEP Miners at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors New Mexico State Aggies 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on UTEP Miners. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774cCTR | UTEP Minersavg 45¢ | $548.1 | $560.28 | +$12.18 | 19% 127-534 (661) |
 0xheavy888CTR | UTEP Minersavg 46¢ | $153.18 | $153.18 | +$0 | 56% 324-253 (577) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | UTEP Minersavg 45.9¢ | $101.92 | $98.79 | -$3.13 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | UTEP Minersavg 45.5¢ | $91 | $92 | +$1 | 52% 881-800 (1681) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | UTEP Minersavg 46.5¢ | $4.65 | $4.45 | -$0.2 | 38% 512-824 (1336) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.68 | -$0.02 | 57% 3461-2635 (6096) |
Invested
$548.1
Value
$560.28
PnL
+$12.18
Record
19%
127-534 (661)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$153.18
Value
$153.18
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
324-253 (577)
Invested
$101.92
Value
$98.79
PnL
-$3.13
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$91
Value
$92
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
881-800 (1681)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$4.45
PnL
-$0.2
Record
38%
512-824 (1336)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.68
PnL
-$0.02
Record
57%
3461-2635 (6096)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.